TheoreTical foundaTion of evaluaTion of loGiSTicS riSK in PharMacy

Subjects of the pharmaceutical industry (SPI) usually function in the conditions of uncertainty and dynamic environment. Pharmacy is characterized by logistic risks due to specific properties of drugs, active pharmaceutical ingredients and active substances. The aim of the research is substantiation of logistic risk significance affecting the quality of drugs, and development of the mechanism for their minimization. The research results were based on the use of methods of expert assessment, ascent from the general to the special, the relationship of qualitative and quantitative characteristics. The logistic risk in the pharmaceutical industry is an event that results in losses of SPI or makes the possibility of an adverse situation or irrelevant results related to flows within the pharmaceutical logistic chain when changing external and internal factors. Availability of a great number of logistic risks makes it necessary to reduce risk of the SPI logistic activity, and, consequently, to develop the risk management mechanism. The algorithm of the logistic risk management of SPI includes seven steps. At the first stage the analysis of SPI logistic operations is conducted, at the second stage their logistic risks and causes are analyzed. Based on this analysis the data sampling that characterize the logistic activity results of SPI is formed. At the third stage, there is quantitative and qualitative assessment of the logistic risks identified in the previous step. At the fourth stage the effect of the internal and external factors on the logistic risk is analyzed. Based on the previous analysis during the fifth stage the scenarios of development of the situation are developed in relation to the threat of the origin of certain logistic risk and the methods of estimation of logistic risks are selected. At the sixth stage logistic risk is estimated. Based on the previous analysis the necessity of calculation of the integral logistic risk is reasonable.

Subjects of the pharmaceutical industry (SPI) usually function in the conditions of uncertainty and dynamic environment. The important principle of their activity is high reliability, providing stability, flexibility and adaptation to changing operating conditions. Unlike other economic sectors the pharmaceutical industry is characterized by logistic risks with specific properties of drugs, active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) and active substances (for example, terms and conditions of storage and transportation, high probability of deterioration and damage during delivery, processing and storage of goods, etc.). Thus, according to the WHO about 25% of medical immunobiological preparations (MIP) are delivered spoiled to the consumer as a result of failure to observe the temperature condition in the process of their storage and transporting [2].
The aim of the research is substantiation of the logistic risk significance affecting the quality of drugs, and development of the mechanism for their minimization.

Materials and Methods
The research results were based on the use of methods of expert assessment, ascent from the general to the special, the relationship of qualitative and quantitative characteristics. Experts were various specialists of different profiles and enterprises of the pharmaceutical industry.

results and discussion
The results of the questionnaire have identified that the share of logistic risks includes a significant percent of the total value risk of SPI (15%) (Fig. 1).
Research of different scientific views has allowed to determine that the logistical risk in the pharmaceutical industry is an event that results in losses of SPI or makes the possibility of an adverse situation or irrelevant results related to flows within the pharmaceutical logistic chain when changing external and internal factors [1,[3][4][5][6][7]. Sources of logistics risks in the pharmaceutical industry are carriers, suppliers of substances, storage of drugs, intermediaries and pharmaceutical manufacturers (Fig. 2).
According to the results of the expert assessment of the significance of the logistic risk in management of flow processes at pharmaceutical enterprises, the most significant risks are risks arising at the stage of transportation and warehousing (Fig. 3). It is related to probability of spoilage of material resources and their loss of qualitative characteristics and, consequently, of profit of SPI.
A considerable part of the logistic risk determines that 91.5% of the respondents consider logistic risks to be important issues for the pharmaceutical industry.
89% of the respondents identify a significant influence of the logistic risks on the performance efficiency of SPI and approximately 85% of the respondents tell about the need for implementation of the logistic risk system for the SPI activity.
Availability of a great number of logistic risks makes it necessary to reduce risk of the SPI logistic activity, and, consequently, to develop the risk management mechanism [7][8][9][10][11][12][13]. The algorithm of logistic risk management of SPI is shown in Fig. 4.
At the first stage the analysis of SPI logistic operations is conducted, at the second stage their logistic risks and causes are analyzed. Based on this analysis the data sampling that characterize the logistic activity results of SPI is formed. At the third stage, there is the quantitative and qualitative assessment of the logistic risks identified in the previous step.
At the fourth stage the effect of the internal and external factors on the logistic risk is analyzed. Тhen during the fifth stage the scenarios of development of the situation are developed in relation to the threat of the origin of certain logistic risk and the methods of estimation of logistic risks are selected. At the sixth stage logistic risk is estimated. Based on the previous analysis the necessity of calculation of integral logistic risk is reasonable. The structure of the integrated logistic risk index includes the risk management of material flows; the risk management of financial flows; the risk management of information flows; transportation risks; environmental risks. Complex indices for each type of risk should be calculated using taxonomic analysis. The results of the logistic risk components calculation for the pharmaceutical company A (for confidentiality) are given in Table 1.
At the seventh stage measures on minimization or prevention of the logistic risk are developed, and then the economic effect of the introduction of the drug management system and SPI logistic costs with implementation of this system is estimated. The complex of safety measures taking into account the specificity of the pharmaceutical industry are given in Table 2.     The ways of minimization of logistic risks in the pharmaceutical industry Logistic personnel training Selection of the professional staff of the logistic personnel Creation of the pharmaceutical logistic information system Creation of the optimal organizational structure of SPI 9. Kersten W., Schroeder M., Singer C. et al. // Proceedings of the 24th Annual Conf. "Nordics Logistics Research Network". -Finland, 2012. -443-457. 10. Kersten W., Schröder M., Singer C. et al. Risk and General Management, 2012. -116 р. 11. Manuj I., Mentzer J.T. // Intern. J. of Physical Distribution & Logistics Management. -2008. -№38 (3). -Р. 192-223. 12. Tuzkaya U.R. // Intern. J. of Environmental Sci. and Technol. -2009